Conflict Alerts # 540, 4 August 2022
Anu Maria Joseph In the news
On 1 August, Senegal's president Macky Sall's ruling party coalition claimed victory in the parliamentary elections. Aminata Toure, head of the presidential coalition said that the coalition had an "unquestionable majority," winning 30 out of 46 administrative departments. President Macky Sall said: "We have given a majority in the National Assembly." However, of the 165 parliamentary seats, the number of seats won by the coalition is yet to be announced.
On the same day, an opposition coalition Wallu Senegal said it had defeated the ruling party in the majority departments with an allied coalition Yewwi Askane Wi. The Wallu Senegal's statement said: "The provisional results from the legislative elections show that President Macky Sall lost the elections … and that he will not have a majority in the National Assembly."
Meanwhile, the opposition coalition, Yewwi Askane Wi rejected the ruling party's claimed victory as a "prefabricated majority." The opposition leader, Barthelemy Dias disputed the claims of winning elections and warned the ruling coalition of having no right to announce the election results. He said: "The people will respond, and the people will come out into the streets tomorrow, and you will tell us where you got your majority," He added: "You lost this election at the national level. We will not accept it. This abuse will not pass."
Issues at large
First, Senegal's electoral process and challenges. Senegal, a Muslim majority country has a model of stability in Africa. The country had consecutive peaceful power transfers in 2000 and 2012 and has never experienced any coups. Under Senegal's hybrid electoral system, 97 candidates winning a majority are elected to various administrative departments, 53 are elected using proportional representation and 15 are elected by Senegalese living outside the country. Though Senegal has a 16 million strong population, only 6.7 million were registered to vote. The election processes are often hindered by contentious campaigns, corruption charges, mismanagement, disinformation, and violence.
Second, the political backdrop. The political tension in the country is triggered by the years-long pattern of political opposition being obstructed on multiple grounds. In March 2021, violent street protests took place, resulting in several fatalities and extensive damage to government buildings and businesses. The protests broke out after president Macky Sall's main opponent Ousmane Sonko, who came third in the 2019 presidential election, was arrested on rape charges. In 2015 and 2018, two other major opposition leaders were jailed on corruption charges. On 22 June, another wave of protests broke out after the main opposition coalition Yewwi Askan Wi's national list for the legislative polls was disqualified on technical grounds.
Third, Macky Sall's third-term ambition. Sall came to power in 2012 with popular support after removing Abdoulaye Wade. He was re-elected in 2019 for a second term. In 2016, the constitutional amendment reduced the presidential term from seven to five years, renewable only once. According to the constitutional council, the law is not retroactive and therefore the first term of President Sall is beyond the law. Having favourable circumstances, many accuse Sall of trying to eliminate his opponents, seeking a third term in 2024.
Four, Senegal's economic challenges. Since the Covid-19 pandemic, the country is struggling with economic crises worsened by unemployment and the global rise in fuel and food prices. The trade and tourism sectors widely suffered from the sanctions imposed on neighbouring West African countries after a series of coups. Besides, in 2022, the International Monetary Fund estimated that inflation in the country is expected to reach 5.5 per cent.
In perspective
First, the lack of transparency around Senegal's electoral process has put the country's stability image at risk. The political actors attempts to hold onto power harms the Senegalese democracy. If president Sall runs for a third term in 2024, it would add to the footsteps of Ivory Coast president Alassane Ouattara and former Guinea president Alpha Conde, adding to the emerging trend of democratic backsliding and entrenchment of authoritarianism in Africa.
Second, the political backdrop in the country has caused public dissent with the ruling governments. Increasing violent protests and demonstrations are worsened by the authoritarian approach of Sall's government.
Third, beyond political issues, raging youth unemployment, growing inequalities, corruption scandals, weak handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and inflation are at the root of growing public anger.
Four, though rhetorically Senegal had successful elections, multiple issues put the country at higher risk of instability, presenting a worrying future for Senegal.